Otras Áreas

Documentos Otras Áreas

The Changing Roles of young single women in Jordan before the Great Recession
An Explanation Using Economic Theory

dt2022-03 | J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, Eduardo L. Giménez, 13/04/2022

Before the Great Recession, young single women in Jordan, like those in other Middle Eastern and North African countries with a strong Islamic cultural tradition, experienced important changes in social roles. In this paper, we claim that economic theory may help to understand some of these changing patterns. It is argued that liberalization in the Jordanian economy resulted in important changes in the Jordanian social contract regarding gender roles, school enrollment, labor participation, marriage, and fertility. In particular, three apparently disconnected contemporaneous developments may be interrelated: the increase in women’s marriage age, the growth of young single women’s participation in the labor market, and the increase in the young male unemployment rate. This process stopped in the late 2000s, both due to exogenous (the Great Recession after 2008 and the Syrian civil war in 2011) and endogenous (existing attitudes towards working women) reasons. We argue that economic conditions may play a role as the driving forces for social transformation, and opens a window for women’s opportunities and empowerness.

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Dividend Momentum and Stock Return Predictability: A Bayesian Approach

dt2021-14 | Ivan Petrella, Helena Hernández-Pizarro, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 03/11/2021

A long tradition in macro-finance studies the joint dynamics of aggregate stock returns and dividends using vector autoregressions (VARs), imposing the cross-equation restrictions implied by the Campbell-Shiller (CS) identity to sharpen inference. We take a Bayesian perspective and develop methods to draw from any posterior distribution of a VAR that encodes a priori skepticism about large amounts of return predictability while imposing the CS restrictions. In doing so, we show how a common empirical practice of omitting dividend growth from the system amounts to imposing the extra restriction that dividend growth is not persistent. We highlight that persistence in dividend growth induces a previously overlooked channel for return predictability, which we label “dividend momentum.” Compared to estimation based on OLS, our restricted informative prior leads to a much more moderate, but still significant, degree of return predictability, with forecasts that are helpful out-of-sample and realistic asset allocation prescriptions with Sharpe ratios that out-perform common benchmarks.

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Estimating Hysteresis Effects

dt2021-11 | Francesco Furlanetto, Antoine Lepetit, Ørjan Robstad, Juan Rubio-Ramírez, Pål Ulvedal, 29/06/2021

In this paper we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular when the Great Recession is included in the sample. Recessions driven by perma- nent demand shocks lead to a permanent decline in employment and investment (including R&D investment), while output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits through a rise in long-term unemployment and a decline in labor force participation and disproportionately affects the least productive workers.

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Los retos de la hipoteca inversa

dt2021-08 | Víctor Daniel González Rivero, 18/03/2021

El documento aborda la figura de la hipoteca inversa, usando principalmente la vivienda habitual en propiedad como garantía, como una potencial alternativa no financiera para la obtención de ingresos complementarios para la jubilación de los propietarios.

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Gender Distribution across Topics in Top 5 Economics Journals: A Machine Learning Approach

dt2021-07 | J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, Juan José Ganuza, Manu García, Luis A. Puch, 08/03/2021

We analyze all the articles published in Top 5 economic journals between 2002 and 2019 in order to find gender differences in their research approach. Using an unsupervised machine learning algorithm (Structural Topic Model) developed by Roberts et al. (2019) we characterize jointly the set of latent topics that best fits our data (the set of abstracts) and how the documents/abstracts are allocated in each latent topic. This latent topics are mixtures over words were each word has a probability of belonging to a topic after controlling by year and journal. This latent topics may capture research fields but also other more subtle characteristics related to the way in which the articles are written. We find that females are uneven distributed along these latent topics by using only data driven methods. The differences about gender research approaches we found in this paper, are “automatically” generated given the research articles, without an arbitrary allocation to particular categories (as JEL codes, or research areas).

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Las políticas de reconstrucción hoy y en el pasado: los casos de Alemania y España comparados

ap2020-12 | Gabriel Tortella, 21/07/2020

En este trabajo se extraen algunas lecciones para la España post‑Covid de la experiencia de reconstrucción alemana tras la Segunda Guerra Mundial y del contraste entre los resultados de los dos estados en los que se particionó el país.

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Las cuentas de la Unión Europea. El marco financiero plurianual europeo

ap2020-09 | Eva Valle, 20/05/2020

En esta nota se analiza la situación actual de las negociaciones sobre el Marco Financiero Plurianual (MFP) 2021-2027 de la Unión Europea, las posiciones de los distintos Estados Miembros y las posibilidades de alcanzar un acuerdo entre ellos. La previsión de la autora es que el MFP se negociará conjuntamente con un nuevo instrumento de recuperación para hacer frente a la crisis del Covid-19 y que se alcanzará un acuerdo global sobre ambos temas durante la segunda mitad de 2020.

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Consistent estimation of panel data sample selection models

dt2020-06 | Sergi Jiménez-Martín, José M. Labeaga, Majid al Sadoon, 11/05/2020

We analyse the properties of classical (fixed effect, first-differences and random effects) as well as generalised method of moments-instrumental variables estimators in either static or dynamic panel data sample selection models. We show that the correlation of the unobserved errors is not sufficient for non-consistency to arise, but the presence of common (and/or nonindependent) non-deterministic covariates in the selection and outcome equations is generally necessary.

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Inference in Bayesian Proxy-SVARs

dt2018-13 | Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, Daniel F. Waggoner, 26/11/2018

Motivated by the increasing use of external instruments to identify structural vector autoregressions (SVARs), we develop algorithms for exact finite sample inference in this class of time series models, commonly known as proxy-SVARs. Our algorithms make independent draws from the normal-generalized-normal family of conjugate posterior distributions over the structural parameterization of a proxy-SVAR. Importantly, our techniques can handle the case of set identification and hence they can be used to relax the additional exclusion restrictions unrelated to the external instruments often imposed to facilitate inference when more than one instrument is used to identify more than one equation as in Mertens and Montiel-Olea (2018).

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Estimation of competing risks duration models with unobserved heterogeneity using hsmlogit

dt2018-03 | David Troncoso-Ponce, 19/02/2018

This article presents hsmlogit, a new Stata command that estimates multispells discrete time competing risks duration models with unobserved heterogeneity. hsmlogit allows for the estimation of one, two and up to three competing risks, as well as a maximum of five points of support for the identification of unobserved heterogeneity distribution ([Heckman and Singer, 1984]). The main contribution of hsmlogit is that allows for exploiting the richness of large longitudinal micro datasets, by estimating competing risks duration models, instead of one-risk models (such as hshaz and hshaz2), as well as it takes into account the presence of unobserved heterogeneity affecting transition rates. In addition to this, and taking into account the larger size of longitudinal micro datasets used for the estimation of discrete time duration models, hsmlogit also provides the algebraic expressions of both first and second order derivatives that, respectively, define the gradient vector and Hessian matrix, which significantly reduce time required to achieve model convergence.

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Estimating Engel curves: A new way to improve the SILC-HBS matching process

dt2017-15 | Julio López-Laborda, Carmen Marín-González, Jorge Onrubia, 25/12/2017

There are several ways to match SILC-HBS surveys, with the most common technique involving the estimation of Engel curves using Ordinary Least Squares in logs with HBS data to impute household expenditure in the income dataset (SILC). The estimation in logs has certain advantages, as it can deal with skewness in data and reduce heteroskedasticity. However, the model needs to be corrected with a smearing estimate to retransform the results into levels. The presence of intrinsic heteroskedasticity in household expenditure therefore calls for another technique, as the smearing estimate produces a bias. Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) are presented as the best option.

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Structural Scenario Analysis and Stress Testing with Vector Autoregressions

dt2017-13 | Juan Antolín-Díaz, Ivan Petrella, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 04/12/2017

In the context of linear vector autoregressions (VAR), conditional forecasts and “stress tests” are typically constructed by specifying the future path of one or more endogenous variables, while remaining silent about the underlying structural economic shocks that might have caused that path. However, in many cases researchers are interested in choosing which structural shock is driving the path of the conditioning variables, allowing the construction of a “structural scenario” which can be given an economic interpretation. We develop efficient algorithms to compute structural scenarios, and show how this procedure can lead to very different, and complementary, results to those of the traditional conditional forecasting exercises. Our methods allow to compute the full posterior distribution around these scenarios in the context of set and incompletely identified structural VARs, taking into account parameter and model uncertainty. Finally, we propose a metric to assess and compare the plausibility of alternative scenarios. We illustrate our methods by applying them to two examples: comparing alternative monetary policy options and stress testing bank profitability to an economic recession.

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Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs

dt2017-07 | Juan Antolín-Díaz, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 23/03/2017

We identify structural vector autoregressions using narrative sign restrictions. Narrative sign restrictions constrain the structural shocks and the historical decomposition around key historical events, ensuring that they agree with the established narrative account of these episodes. Using models of the oil market and monetary policy, we show that narrative sign restrictions are highly informative. We highlight that adding a single narrative sign restriction dramatically sharpens and even changes the inference of SVARs originally identified via traditional sign restrictions. Our approach combines the appeal of narrative methods with the popularized usage of traditional sign restrictions.

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Faster estimation of discrete time duration models with unobserved heterogeneity using hshaz2

dt2017-06 | David Troncoso-Ponce, 16/03/2017

This article presents hshaz2, a new Stata command that uses d2 ml method to estimate discrete time duration models with unobserved heterogeneity. The main advantage of using hshaz2 is the gain in computation speed, that takes special relevance as the sample size increases.

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Cargos por Azar

dt2017-03 | Emilio Albi, 13/02/2017

El azar puede ofrecer el estímulo que contrarreste comportamientos no deseables de los partidos políticos en la elección de altos cargos, La aleatoriedad rompe el incentivo de seguir conductas políticas oportunistas ya que lo fortuito elimina saber quién hará tal cosa o conseguirá tal otra. “Cargos por azar” intenta despolitizar la elección de altos cargos en muy diversas instituciones del Estado.

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The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications

dt2016-07 | Martin M. Andreasen, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 06/09/2016

This paper studies the pruned state-space system for higher-order perturbation ap- proximations to DSGE models. We show the stability of the pruned approximation up to third order and provide closed-form expressions for Örst and second unconditional moments and impulse response functions. Our results introduce GMM estimation and impulse-response matching for DSGE models approximated up to third order and pro- vide a foundation for indirect inference and SMM. As an application, we consider a New Keynesian model with Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences and two novel feedback e§ects from long-term bonds to the real economy, allowing us to match the level and variability of the 10-year term premium in the U.S. with a low relative risk aversion of 5.

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Monte Carlo evidence on the estimation of AR(1) panel data sample selection models

dt2016-01 | Sergi Jiménez-Martín, José María Labeaga, 14/01/2016

We present Generalized Method of Moments estimators for AR(1) dynamic panel data sample selection models. We perform a Monte Carlo study to evaluate the finite sample properties of the proposed estimators. Our results suggest that correcting for sample selection in many standard cases does not add much to the uncorrected estimates. In particular, the magnitude of the biases is similar and very small when estimating the model either correcting or not the equation of interest. This equivalence also holds in the dynamic model with exogenous regressors. These results are especially relevant for practitioners either when there is selection of unknown form or selection is difficult to model.

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“Gender (in)Equality Act” and large Spanish Corporations

fpp2015-03 | J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, Carmen Hoya, 11/02/2015

This policy paper presents an analysis of the current situation of female representation on the boards of Directors of the 35 largest publicly listed Spanish companies. Whenever possible, it compares the situation in 2013 to that of 2007, the year in which the “Gender Equality Act” was passed. The law stated that in 2015 it would assess progress and decide whether or not to introduce more drastic measures or implement further actions if necessary. The paper finds there is still a long way to go until gender equality is reached. Female representation on the boards is still below the EU-28 average and more importantly well below the 40% objective the Spanish Government set in 2007 to be met in 2015. Moreover, even though female board members are paid on average less than male board members (even when comparing in the same job position and the same company), they are younger and more educated than their male colleagues. An analysis of the Spanish situation and of the EU context suggests that the only way forward is through binding legislation (i.e. gender quotas with sanctions for non-complying companies).

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Which club should I attend, Dad?: Targeted socialization and production

dt-2014-20 | Facundo Albornoz, Antonio Cabrales, Esther Hauk, 22/12/2014

We study a model that integrates productive and socialization efforts with network choice and parental investments. We characterize the unique symmetric equilibrium of this game. We first show that individuals underinvest in productive and social effort, but that solving only the investment problem can exacerbate the misallocations due to network choice, to the point that it may generate an even lower social welfare if one of the networks is sufficiently disadvantaged. We also study the interaction of parental investment with network choice. We relate these equilibrium results with characteristics that we find in the data on economic co-authorship and field transmission between advisors and advisees.

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Risk-sharing and contagion in networks

dt-2014-18 | Antonio Cabrales, Piero Gottardi, Fernando Vega-Redondo, 09/12/2014

We investigate the trade-off, arising in financial networks, between higher risk-sharing and greater exposure to contagion when the connectivity increases. We find that with shock distributions displaying ”fat” tails, extreme segmentation into small components is optimal, while minimal segmentation and high density of connections are optimal with distributions exhibiting ”thin” tails. For less regular distributions, intermediate degrees of segmentation and sparser connections are optimal. If firms are heterogeneous, optimality requires perfect assortativity in their linkages. In gen- eral, however, a conflict arises between optimality and individual incentives to establish linkages, due to a ”size externality” not internalized by firms.

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Efficiency and Endogenous Fertility

dt-2014-10 | Mikel Pérez-Nievas, J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, Eduardo L. Giménez, 15/09/2014

This paper explores the properties of several notions of efficiency (Α-efficiency, Ρ-efficiency and Millian efficiency) to evaluate allocations in a general overlapping generations setting with endogenous fertility and descendant altruism that includes, as a particular case, Barro and Becker’s (1988) model of fertility choice. We first focus on the notion of Α-efficiency, proposed by Golosov, Jones and Tertilt (Econometrica, 2007) and show that, in many environments, the set of symmetric, interior, Α-efficient allocations is empty. To overcome this problem, we then propose to evaluate the efficiency of a given allocation with a particular specification of Ρ-efficiency –proposed also by Golosov et al.– for which the utility attributed to the unborn depends on the utility level achieved by those who get to be born in a given allocation. For a large class of specifications of the function determining the utility attributed to the unborn, every Millian efficient allocation, that is, every symmetric allocation that is not Α-dominated by any other symmetric allocation, is also Ρ-efficient. Finally, we restate the First Welfare Theorem by showing that a) every competitive equilibrium is a –statically– Millian efficient allocation; and that b) if long-run wages do not exceed the capitalized costs of rearing children, then competitive equilibria are also –dynamically– Millian efficient.

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The Role of Global Value Chains during the Crisis: Evidence from Spanish and European Firms

dt-2014-09 | Aranzazu Crespo, Marcel Jansen, 17/08/2014

This paper analyzes the role that global value chains (GVC) have played during the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, and the key policy challenges that Spain faces. First, we provide a comparative analysis of the export performance and FDI activities of Spanish firms, using the firm-level information of the EFIGE dataset. Then, we use input-output tables from the WIOD database to identify the industries whose participation in GVCs should be promoted since they retain a larger share of domestic value added. Finally, we analyze the capacity of GVCs to amplify or act as built-in stabilizers following economic downturns. To do so, we compute the first round impact on Spanish gross exports and domestic value added of a 10% increase in final demand in selected areas of the world. Spain’s gross exports would be worth 2.28% of GDP while the domestic value added from export would grow by 2.34%, which suggests that GVCs act as stabilizers since the promote more the domestic value added components.

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Immigrant Selection over the Business Cycle: The Spanish Boom and the Great Recession

dt-2014-05 | Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 26/05/2014

Spain received more immigrants than any other European country during its boom between 1997 and 2007 but continued receiving them during the recession that followed. This paper documents the selection of these immigrants in terms of their productive characteristics both before and after the peak of the boom. Pre-crisis immigrants were typically positively selected although selection was less positive for some over-represented national groups. Post-crisis immigration became even more positively selected, as well as older and more feminized.

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A practitioners' guide to gravity models of international migration

dt-2014-03 | Michel Beinea, Simone Bertoli, Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 13/02/2014

The use of bilateral data for the analysis of international migration is at the same time a blessing and a curse. It is a blessing since the dyadic dimension of the data allows researchers to analyze many previously unaddressed questions in the literature. This paper reviews some of the recent studies using this type of data in a gravity framework in order to identify important factors affecting international migration ows. Our review demonstrates that considerable efforts have been conducted by many scholars and that overall we have a much better knowledge of the relevant determinants. Still, the use of bilateral data is also a curse. The methodological challenges that are implied by the use of this type of data are numerous and our paper covers some of the most significant ones. These include sound theoretical foundations, accounting for multilateral resistance to migration as well the choice of appropriate estimation techniques dealing with the nature of the migration data and with endogeneity concerns.

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Otras Áreas

Las opiniones recogidas en estos documentos son las de sus autores y no coinciden necesariamente con las de FEDEA.